Bitcoin has fallen 19% in the last three days. The flight from risky assets and uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program supported the U.S. dollar.
Evergrande defaulted on interest payments to at least two of its biggest bank lenders on Monday. Many assets were under pressure, including crypto. The price was down to $39600.
The initial bounce in the price was 5.9%, to $41963. A second wave of buying followed on Wednesday with the dollar index falling after statements from Evergrande. The Chinese real estate giant said it would make an impending coupon payment on its yuan-denominated bonds. The news dispels fears of default.
Risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Chinese yuan jumped, while the shelter yen weakened slightly. Against this backdrop, the rise in the BTC/USD pair accelerated to $42360. Before the opening of the European session, the price was rising to $42749.
The weakening of the dollar was subdued, as it is still unknown whether the Chinese developer will be able to pay the coupon on its offshore dollar bonds due on Thursday ($85 million).
The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting adds uncertainty to the markets. After the meeting at 21:30 Moscow time, the press conference of J. Powell will be held. Market participants are waiting for specifics from him on the program winding down. According to a CNBC poll of 32 respondents, the Fed won’t announce a tapering until November. The central bank is expected to announce a $120 billion a month QE program wind-down in November and begin winding down in December. Purchases will be reduced by $15 billion a month.
Volatility on all exchanges is expected from 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. The QE cuts are already priced in, so the rule may work: buy the expectations, sell the facts.